This Monday 14/11/2022 ,ATSAL is relocating to Carré France. Le Carré France is the French Business Center located in the building of the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry, located in the heart of Moscow at 10/1 Milyutinskiy Pereulok, 3rd floor.
There are a lot of talks about inflation in Russia, for this year 2021, so what’sthe situation ? The Gogov.ru site is one of the best statistical sources in Russia and it provides the “official” inflation by year, the one calculated by Rosstat which is the Federal Service for State Statistics. Inflation for 2021 is officially be 8.39%, while actual and perceived inflation seems closer to 12 / 15%. Below the inflation / year 2021 8.39% 2020 4.91% 2019 3.05% 2018 4.27% 2017 2.52% 2016 5.38% 2015 12.91% 2014 11.36%2013 6.45% 2012 6.58% 2011 6.10% 2010 8.78% 2009 8.80% 2008 13.28% 2007 11.87% 2006 9.00%2005 10.91% 2004 11.74% 2003 11.99% 2002 15.06%2001 18.58% 2000 20.20%
The number of self-employed citizens (самозанятых) in the capital is approaching 900.000 while the figure was 460.000 in December 2020. On his side the unemployment rate in Moscow is also decreasing. If a year ago, in December 2020, it was around 2%, now it is officially at 0.48% Source
Russia is facing a seven-year record “staff shortage” in with most critical situation in– Moscow – Krasnoyarsk Territory– Rostov– Amur region– Irkutsk– Moscow region– Krasnodar– Primorsky – Nizhny Novgorod – TatarstanThese 10 regions accounted for about 40% of the all-Russian personnel deficit. During the year 2021, the lack of workers permanently grew, from 1,69 million workers in January to 2 millions in May 2021 and 2,2 millions in November 2021, the highest figure since 2014. If a year ago there were two unemployed per vacancy, now the situation is diametrically opposite – there are exactly two times more open vacancies than those who want to get a job. Unemployment is at a historic low of 4.3%, while the economy is experiencing an acute shortage of workers which there is simply nowhere to take, “said Elena Trubnikova, President of FinExpertiza Global. Source
Unemployment in Russia in August 2021 officially fell to 4.4%. This is the lowest level since August 2019. According to public statistics, the number of workers aged 15 and over in August 2021 amounted to 75.6 million people, of which 72.3 million people were classified as employed in economic activity. Among them 3.4 million people were classified as unemployed meaning – without a job – looking for a job – ready to start working Source : TASS
Official unemployment rate in Moscow fell to 0.55 percent, the lowest since April 2020, according to Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Economic Policy Vladimir Efimov. Over the past year the number of vacancies has increased by 79 percent, while the number of resumes has decreased by 12 percent. From April 2020 to July 2021, the largest number of employees were hired in software development, healthcare, trade and construction. Today the number of vacancies exceeds the number of job seekers by more than 6.5 times and while there are officially 39.9 thousand people unemployed in the capital, there are over 390 thousand job offers for people with different levels of education and qualifications. The leader in terms of vacancies is wholesale and retail trade, and of course IT for which the exceeds supply by almost 27 times. Source
Today, June 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on temporary measures to regulate the legal status of foreign nationals and stateless persons in the Russian Federation during the continuous spread of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19). Starting June 16, the following changes will be introduced: • valid work permits of highly Qualified Specialists who have stayed outside of Russia for more than 6 months will not be cancelled; • the legal stay of the foreigners will be prolonged until September 30, 2021, provided that the foreign nationals apply to the Ministry of Internal Affairs to regularize their legal status. This refers to all documents – temporary and permanent residence permits, work permits, all visa types and migration cards; • citizens of the Eurasian Economic Union member states may conclude employment and civil law contracts until 31 December 2021 regardless to the declared purpose of visit to the Russian Federation; • the validity of temporary and permanent permits will be prolonged for 90 days from the date of lifting the temporary restriction on transport connections with the foreign states listed in the Government Decree 635-r, provided that foreign nationals kept valid documents by March 15, 2020; • employers or service providers may apply for issuance (renewal) of work permits to foreign citizens and stateless persons regardless to the declared purpose of visit to the Russian Federation.
We talked to Alexandre Stefanesco of ATSAL about a different way of recruitment, and this is what he said: First of all, how are you and your family doing in these COVID-19 times? Alexandre Stefanesco: I got Covid-19 in November 2020, but my wife was already vaccinated while our kids went through it like magic. So, so far so good! Tell us about you, your career, how you founded ATSAL? Alexandre Stefanesco: I am born in France but have lived in Moscow for 13 years, therefore I am “Frussian.” Since 2012 I have run ATSAL, a company that I created, which is a leading HR Consulting & Recruitment Agency based in Moscow operating in Russia, CIS, and Europe. How does ATSAL innovate? Alexandre Stefanesco: We innovate in the way that we permanently try to bring high value-addition to our clients when searching for highly complex and rare profiles. Also, we have tools to recruit on distance, which is necessary due to the size of the country, and they became useful during the pandemic when we still had to recruit despite the fact that people could move, meet, and travel less … How does the coronavirus pandemic affect your business, and how are you coping? Alexandre Stefanesco: Well, recruitment does not go well when you have an economic recession, closed borders, and lockdowns. Being Moscow-based and working a lot with Foreign companies, we have been impacted very strongly by the situation in the different European countries where our client’s HQ is based. We took a lot of different decisions to face this recession: new specific Covid tariffs, new HR services dedicated to candidates, creation of a newsletter to inform our clients about the situation in Russia … Did you have to make difficult choices, and what are the lessons learned? Alexandre Stefanesco: We made it through without any major decisions to make. The Russian economy also starts recovering probably faster than expected. Finally, we got locked-down in April 2020, but since mid-May 2020 the city is open and despite a huge second wave, the economy stayed open. Lessons learned are clearly numerous, and the first one I would say is that no matter which scenario you can predict or imagine for your Business, you must always be ready for a Force Majeure situation. What specific tools, software, and management skills are you using to navigate this crisis? Alexandre Stefanesco: We use different tools: we have a local applicant tracking system on SAAS Mode, we also use ASANA to organize, track, and manage our work and we have an asynchronous video-interview solution allowing us to provide a more “alive” picture of our candidates to our clients. Who are your competitors? And how do you plan to stay in the game? Alexandre Stefanesco: Our competitors are mostly any other agency operating on the same market and targeting the same pool of clients, so I would say they are plenty of them? How do we stay in the game? Well, I would say we communicate a lot, we stay highly visible, and also, we have good and fair clients, they trust us and we try to perform the best for them. Your final thoughts? Alexandre Stefanesco: Russia faces a crisis every 6 / 8 years, we had 1998, 2008, 2014, and now 2020 that leads to big changes in the Russian economic ecosystem. At the same time, the Russian economy seems more and more resilient every time and during every crisis. We talked to Alexandre Stefanesco of ATSAL about a different way of recruitment, and this is what he said: First of all, how are you and your family doing in these COVID-19 times? Alexandre Stefanesco: I got Covid-19 in November 2020, but my wife was already vaccinated while our kids went through it like magic. So, so far so good! Tell us about you, your career, how you founded ATSAL? Alexandre Stefanesco: I am born in France but have lived in Moscow for 13 years, therefore I am “Frussian.” Since 2012 I have run ATSAL, a company that I created, which is a leading HR Consulting & Recruitment Agency based in Moscow operating in Russia, CIS, and Europe. How does ATSAL innovate? Alexandre Stefanesco: We innovate in the way that we permanently try to bring high value-addition to our clients when searching for highly complex and rare profiles. Also, we have tools to recruit on distance, which is necessary due to the size of the country, and they became useful during the pandemic when we still had to recruit despite the fact that people could move, meet, and travel less … How does the coronavirus pandemic affect your business, and how are you coping? Alexandre Stefanesco: Well, recruitment does not go well when you have an economic recession, closed borders, and lockdowns. Being Moscow-based and working a lot with Foreign companies, we have been impacted very strongly by the situation in the different European countries where our client’s HQ is based. We took a lot of different decisions to face this recession: new specific Covid tariffs, new HR services dedicated to candidates, creation of a newsletter to inform our clients about the situation in Russia … Did you have to make difficult choices, and what are the lessons learned? Alexandre Stefanesco: We made it through without any major decisions to make. The Russian economy also starts recovering probably faster than expected. Finally, we got locked-down in April 2020, but since mid-May 2020 the city is open and despite a huge second wave, the economy stayed open. Lessons learned are clearly numerous, and the first one I would say is that no matter which scenario you can predict or imagine for your Business, you must always be ready for a Force Majeure situation. What specific tools, software, and management skills are you using to navigate this crisis? Alexandre Stefanesco: We use different tools: we have a local applicant tracking system on SAAS Mode, we also use ASANA to organize, track, and manage our work and we have an asynchronous video-interview solution allowing us to provide a more “alive”
A bit of Demography, Labour Market and Immigration. According toMVD 215.901 people received Russian citizenship (67% being ukrainians) from January to April 2020, comparing with 85.937 during the same period last year; 6.448 HQS (ВКС) were delivered, comparing with 10.227 for the same period in 2019. 2 248 working permit were delivered, comparing with 5 570 for the same period last year. 559.055 Patents delivered comparing 600.267 for the same period last year. 49.433 Temporary resident permit (РВП), comparing with 77 362 for same period last year. 80 545 Permanent resident permit (ВНЖ) comparing with 60 414 for same period last year. 88 014 people were denied to enter Russia, VS 86.578 for the same period last year. If this trend keeps going on Russia may gain 1 million new citizens this year, including 600 000 or 700 000 ukrainians. Source https://xn--b1aew.xn--p1ai/Deljatelnost/statistics/migracionnaya/item/20171097/
262 843 cases 58 226 people recovered 2 418 deaths 6 413 948 tests 256 000 people under medical supervision 100 000 people hospitalized for C19 syndroms including 4 000 childrens 150 000 people treated at home including 10 000 childrens 4 000 people in critical stage 1 500 people under ventilators 433 000 medics and 114 000 doctors mobilized
These sanctions were supposed to punish Moscow’s elite, but instead they’ve spurred economic development and patriotism. The current conversation about Russia sanctions centers around targeting and scope. Are we punishing the people whose behavior we most want to change? Is there pain, well inflicted, on those individuals responsible for creating chaos in Ukraine and Crimea, for reckless attacks on Sergei Skripal and others, and for wanton interference in Western elections? Can we hurt Russian elites in a way that Putin will notice? Have we done enough? In at least one sector, though, the sanctions are a textbook case of unintended consequences: they’ve put Russian farmers in the best shape they’ve ever been. Countersanctions aimed at imported Western food products—put into effect just days after the initial sanctions in the summer of 2014—initially sent Russian consumers into a tailspin, hungry from a lack of immediate alternatives to tasty European cheeses and processed foods. But palates adjusted quickly, and the import substitution effects boosted Russia, by 2016, to the position of top wheat exporter in the world. As the United States hemorrhages global agro-market share courtesy of Trump-era tariffs and trade wars, Russia is actively and aggressively filling the gap. The Sanctions In early 2014, following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and continued involvement in separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, the United States, European Union, and several other Western countries imposed sanctions. Throughout 2014, these measures progressed from the diplomatic (limits on previously scheduled meetings and talks), to curbs on specific individuals and organizations (targeted visa bans and asset freezes), and finally, in July and September, to restrictions on Russia’s financial, defense, and energy sectors. The latter limited access to capital markets and low-interest loans, imposed an arms embargo and ban on exports of dual-use items to military clients, and prohibited export of innovative extractive technology (with special approval required for all other energy-related exports). Since 2014, the sanctions have been sustained and augmented, but they have remained within these categories. In August of 2014, Russia initiated countersanctions to ban specific food commodities imported from the United States and EU. Affected foods included beef, poultry, fish/seafood, fruits/vegetables, nuts, milk and dairy, cheese, and a wide range of processed and prepared foods. The ban was broad, covering both staples and luxury items. It hit many foods on which Russia was most import-dependent, and its wide geographic scope (the range of countries it covers) has made it difficult to compensate fully for shortages by increasing imports from non-sanctioned countries. he Impact Russia felt the whole spectrum of sanctions in three immediate ways: increased volatility on foreign exchange markets, leading to significant depreciation of the ruble and resulting inflationary pressures; restricted access to financial markets; and depressed consumption and investment. Imports sank in the third quarter of 2014. The steep drop in world oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2014 likely had even more profound effects on the Russian economy than the sanctions and countersanctions. In late 2014 and early 2015, oil prices fell so far (from $100 per barrel in Q2 2014, to under $60 by the end of 2014, and even further by the second half of 2015) that Russia’s export revenues were cut by a third. And the financial sanctions meant that Russia could not mitigate the oil price plunge by borrowing money. Right off the bat, the countersanctions impacted $9.5 billion worth of food annually, covering almost a tenth of total food consumption in Russia and a quarter of food imports. Before the countersanctions, domestic production covered less than 40 percent of Russia’s intake of fruit, 80 percent of milk/dairy, and 90 percent of vegetables; Russia was already a net exporter of cereals, potatoes, and oil plants. The countersanctions banned 60 percent of incoming meat and fish, and half of imported dairy, fruits, and vegetables. Overall, the share of imports in total food consumption decreased from over a third in 2014 to just over 20 percent in the second quarter of 2017. Prices immediately increased. By February of 2015, food inflation (year-on-year) was over 23 percent. Households shifted food buying and eating habits away from pricier, formerly imported foods (fruit, milk/dairy, beef) toward less expensive, domestically-sourced goods (potatoes, bread, chicken), and have adopted “smart shopping” strategies to value acceptable quality at lower prices (including a diminished appetite for prestige brands in favor of trusted store brands). Before too long, the consumer environment had largely adjusted and recovered. By 2018, food price increases were much lower than overall inflation. Some banned food products from the EU have made their way to Russia as re-exports from other countries. In the final quarter of 2014, for example, EU dairy exports to Belarus increased tenfold compared to the previous year, and exports of fruit and fish doubled—not likely a surge in the domestic Belarussian market. While not a large percentage of Russia’s overall food trade, these secondary import substitutions have exacerbated trade tensions between Russia and Belarus, leading to a reinstatement of customs controls between the two countries in December 2014, as well as the threat of restrictions on imports of milk products from Belarus as recently as spring 2018. Probably rightly, Russia accuses Belarus of being a willing conduit for banned, counterfeit, and low-quality or mislabeled foods. The Industry The countersanctions were a gift to the Russian agrifood industry. They legitimized and catalyzed an import substitution strategy whose broad objective had been in place since the late 2000s: to become self-sufficient in food. In other words, the sanctions paved the way for Putin to overcome a long-standing embarrassment dating back to the collapse of the sector in the 1990s. The timing of the countersanctions—announced just a couple of days after the sanctions—led many observers to wonder whether the lists of banned products had been planned beforehand, specifically as a measure intended ultimately to boost domestic production. Russia’s food industry has seized this opportunity. Many investors who had not previously bothered with agriculture suddenly became interested in farming. High-end oligarchs also got the message, with the agriculture sector becoming a point of national pride and patriotism
« We recruited foreign specialists for Russian clients who wanted and will for example produce cheese and milk IN Russia. Those market share are totally lost for foreign companies that were previously exporting their goods to Russia”. « Nevertheless, the Russian state really well managed its Treasury and during the crisis the foreign exchange reserves have been rising (…) So if the idea was: we will do sanctions, the Russians will suffer and go down the street to protest against their politics, that’s a failure because this is not what happened in Russia ». « Sanctions are an American weapon in the modern world, but slowly, this tool that allows America to dominate the planet is weakening ». Source : https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1135401/russes-sanctions-americaines-economie-alteresco
Winston Churchill once said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Thanks to our new Partner in Moscow, Executive Search in this exciting market doesn’t have to be. An interview with new Talentor partner Alexandre Stefanesco. How did you end up moving from France to Moscow and staying? I was working in France for an Italian international company, and traveling on business in China in 2005, 2006, so I was thinking about moving far abroad, ideally to a BRIC country. Before the 2008 crisis, the BRIC countries had strong economic growth and huge potential. At the same time my wife was finishing her studies in France so we traveled to Russia a couple of times. We fell in love with Moscow and decided to relocate there in 2008. In 2012 we created our HR Consulting & Recruitment Agency, Atsal. What is a typical profile that you recruit? The decade following the collapse of the Russian economy in 1998 saw companies hiring a lot of foreigners. Russia was economically booming and foreign companies were sending a lot of expatriates to develop their business in the Country. Then, after the 2008 financial crisis, the opposite trend emerged. A really strong russification took place. Now fewer and fewer foreigners do work in Russia, especially in middle/top management positions. The shrinkage of expatriates was balanced by a return to Russia of Russian citizens who had been living or studying abroad for a while and decided to pursue their career in Russia. We call them Repats. Therefore, 90% of the profiles that we recruit for our clients are Russian citizens. Clients occasionally ask us to search for foreigners, but usually on a local contract basis and for very specific positions, especially in Finance. We primarily deal with middle / top management and technical positions. Who is a typical client for you? We have expertise working for foreign small and medium sized business as well as with larger groups. We work in various directions. Some clients are foreign companies that already have operations in Russia. They request our support to develop or optimize their Team. Some clients are foreign companies that we help to start their business in Russia, building their recruitment strategy and their team. Recently, we have also begun to work more with Russian companies that understand that our international expertise in recruitment is a plus for them as well. What surprises foreign companies the most when they are recruiting specialists in Russia? I think that they very often underestimate the cultural gap. Clearly Russia is a European country, but it’s far from being only European. Managers without experience in Russia sometimes face very unexpected cultural situations and often feel like they do not understand neither what’s going on. Neither does their team, even with a common language, regardless whether it’s French, English or German. Executives often work in areas far outside of their educational background. It’s crucial for foreign companies to take the intercultural dimension into account when they recruit, or be helped by HR providers with expertise in intercultural workplaces. What are the most frequent intercultural problems? What’s the biggest cultural misunderstanding that you’ve seen? Russia is a very complex country, it’s huge and diverse and I can say there is not one Russia, but rather different Russias. Local teams are generally used to quiet, vertical, and let’s say directive management, the young generation as well. Productivity is not that high. Management has to adapt to the low productivity and appreciate that Russian employees are incredibly skilled at crisis management and finding solutions. Russians typically mix their personal and professional lives more at work, which can be very confusing for foreigners, especially western Europeans. Perhaps this is why local teams are usually more loyal to people than to companies. If a manager leaves the company, she or he may be followed by the team. Also, the behavior that took place in the 90’s and early 2000’s with Westerners showing locals how to do things is ending. Russians have taken back their country and its economy, and now are taking on managing positions. Foreign companies must know the Russian realities to correctly pilot their Russian subsidiaries and their Russian managers. Often, that’s not the case. Tell me something that a foreign company would never guess about the Russian labor market. Very low unemployment (5% in Russia) makes the market very fluid, especially for middle management segment. In Moscow, where the business is, unemployment peaks at 1% and we have strong global candidate shortage. This shortage is going to get worst in the next 10, 12 years due to the economic situation and the demographic hole, arising from the lack of birth in the 90’s. It will become harder for companies to acquire and retain talents because of this shortage. As there is no Russian-speaking market with numerous and available qualified Russian speaking manpower in the former Soviet Union, we will have a terrible war for local talents. In addition, local cultural behaviors make candidates quite unstable. They can show up, disappear, or change their mind and their job with a 2 weeks’ notice …It’s already hard to acquire, select, retain and ensure employee’s loyalty. On the other hand, with the weak Ruble, local talents cost MUCH less than in the West, even though they are generally much better educated. The market is more dynamic, you can meet candidates on evenings very late or on weekends. It’s much more open and business oriented than let’s say western Europe in this way. How is the political situation in Russia effecting the business climate? The difference between the 2008 and the 2014 crises is obvious. While the 2008 crisis totally destabilized the economy, the 2014 one did not, despite much worse macroeconomic indicators. The Russian economy has become much more resilient. I would say that things are not as bad as we imagine from a foreign perspective. From a local point of view, Russia seems to be more stable and solid internally. Western companies have suffered
So obviously that’s a very good news for us. After 6 years of existence and 6 years of continuous growth, ATSAL has reached a new stage of its development. We are happy to announce our partnership with TALENTOR! TALENTOR is an international executive search and recruiting network with operations in 28 countries on 4 continents and that brings together 175 consultants. For ATSAL this partnership is really important and joining TALENTOR will allow us to benefit from being an independent, local operator while simultaneously plugging into a global network of innovative and reliable search professionals with a very high-level of international expertise. We are still an independent corporate entity here in ATSAL but we have chosen to join a network of people with whom we share the same vision and desire to create a new generation of recruiters, head-hunters and HR consultants. Regardless of whether the client is large and global or small and local, Talentor´s combination of global reach, local presence and extensive practical knowledge now make us a more powerful, efficient and reliable partner. In addition, Talentor’s focus on transparency and integrity make the network a perfect fit for us – and of course for our Clients and Candidates. Alexandre Stefanesco, Founder of ATSAL
2017 is coming to an end and everyone is already looking into the future. So do we. Peeking a few months ahead, we share with you what could be main recruitment trends in 2018. So, feeling like a fortune tellers, we think that 2018 will bring us: Care and personalize. Companies will be more focused on providing “candidate care” experience. Candidates will not be only a source of manpower and the final link in closing a job, but recruiters will work more closely with each of them, trying to establish long-term relationships. Candidates will be provided with fast, transparent, sincere and positive approach while all-even the most conservative- agencies will understand the importance to talk to candidates where they are, using Social Media, messengers, creating chatbots etc. Rethink and digitalize recruitment strategy. Integrates demography and demographics’ dynamics. All metrics are important in recruitment strategy. Employer brand matters more than ever, so the companies that realized it before will continue on building their brand strategy, while all others start to think about creating one. Feedback. Not only employers get to “judge” candidates and give them recommendations, now candidates are in this game too. There are many sources for leaving a review on your employer or a recruitment agency and companies should be aware of that, because in this case it is not “bad PR is still a good PR”, but can cost a company a potential employee, clients and even brand image. Multichannel sourcing. As we mentioned earlier, social networks communication is fundamental. Community Manager can become a real recruitment interface and hep to create HR communities that may attract talents, including passive candidates. Video will become a powerful tool for attracting candidates, promoting employer brand and even for candidates to make better first impression (tools like video interview or video CV). Focus on passive candidates. The recruiters need to be more proactive in their actions and candidate-targeting. They need to pay more attentions to profiles of passive candidates, approaching them directly and only with real proposals. No more “would you like to…?” tell candidates you have a great opportunity matching their profile, make them an offer that would be interesting and make previously passive candidate wanting to have an interview with you. Bring sales in recruiting strategy and ahead build relationships + get use to track candidate’s data, to better understand them. Select differently. Rethink / focus more on soft skills especially focus on Attitude, Personality and Ability. We’ve already talked about how important soft skills are now. Recruiters might need to focus on those (especially attitude, personality and ability) and not only see the CV of a candidate with a list of companies he/she has been working for. Be flexible and think outside the box. More and more we see candidates sending their CV via WhatsApp message or just recording a video telling about their experience. We cannot go with an old way of communicating with candidates, we need to meet them halfway: unordinary CV, Skype interviews, phone interviews, etc.
2017 has been a great year, but there’s always wish for more, so 2018, please make that… 🎄That economical growth is accelerating! 🎄That wages in Russia increase! 🎄That more and more French companies invest the Russian market. 🎄That Russian authorities unblock LinkedIn 🎄That recruitment agencies actively integrate the «Candidate Care »! 🎄That HR agencies treat their consultants better to give back to Russian recruiters the taste of working in agencies. 🎄That agencies integrate technology and in particular during the selection of candidates to better perceive the attitude and behavioral skills of the candidate. 🎄That recruiters understand that robots will be tomorrow their best friends but do not have the vocation to replace them. 🎄That one understands that recruiting is at the same time a matter of method and process but also a question of emotion, leaving a preponderant role to the human! 🎄That candidates understand that recruiters are “also” « human beings » and that their objective is really to find the right candidates for their clients. Happy new year 2018 to all! 🍾🥂
Editorial written for the newsletter of the French House of Entrepreneurship. While 2017 ends, the economic recovery seems to be confirmed. Russia is coming out of two years of recession due to the sharp drop in the price of hydrocarbons in autumn 2014, resulting in the country's GDP shrinking 3.6% in 2015 and 0.6 % and 2016. 2017 saw a GDP growth (compared year on year) of 0.5% in the first quarter, 2.5% in the second quarter and 1.8% in the third quarter. Over the first three quarters, industrial production increased by 1.8% and retail sales, which decreased by 10% in 2015 and 4.8% in 2016, also saw a slight increase of 0.5%. The automotive, pharmaceutical, chemical and food industries, as well as the production of electrical equipment, show slightly higher growth. Another positive indicator: the unemployment rate continues to fall to only 5% and less than 1.5% in major centers such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Foreign exchange reserves in dollars, which had decreased to 350 billion dollars in mid-2015, increased again to reach 430 billion dollars on 01/12/2017, reaching their level of autumn 2014 before the crisis. At the same time, inflation continues to fall and should end the year at around 4%, far from the rates of recent years: 12.5% in 2014, 11% in 2015 and 9% in 2016. This is an extremely important dynamic while all social polls show that the main concern of Russian citizens is clearly the economic situation and primarily rising consumer prices. The IMF has even slightly raised its growth forecast for Russia to 1.8% this year, against 1.4% previously, an estimate now similar to that of the Russian Ministry of Economy, which plans for 2017 and 2018 a growth of about 2%. In parallel of the recovery of the economic situation, the situation seems also to slightly ameliorate on the political dimension, while presidential elections to take place in March 2018. French minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, visits Moscow to take part to French-Russian CEFIC (commercial, economic, financial, industrial council), in order to give a new impulse to the relations between France and Russia. A strategic moment indeed since the Franco-Russian partnership just proved its reliability despite sanctions with the launch of the Yamal project (for the construction of a gas liquefaction plant in the Yamal peninsula in Russia) in which Total holds a 20% direct interest in the project. In addition, next year, President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Russia and visit the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in May 2018. One can only hope that these many positive indicators give more confidence to the French business to invest in Russia! Russia is a big market that remains a formidable potential of growth for our companies, on the condition to be well accompanied.
Demographic crisis in Russia: what consequences does it bring to human resources ? People often talk about demographic crisis in Russia underestimating its consequences and dynamics that was a result of the collapse of births following the collapse of the Soviet Union. 1980 – 1990 In the decade before the fall of the Soviet Union from 1980 to 1990, Russia had 600,000 new inhabitants as an annual average growth in 2.2 million births and 1.6 million deaths (more births than deaths). In 1990, the population of the Soviet Union was 292 million inhabitants, whereas 147,969,000 inhabitants of the whole amount lived inside the Russia’s nowadays borders. 1990 – 2000 At the fall of the Soviet Union, the economic and political collapse led to a demographic catastrophe. Starting from 1991 the number of births began to decrease, going from 1,794,626 annually to 1,214,689 in 1999, while the fertility rate crashed from 1.89 to 1.17 children per woman. At the same time, the collapse of the health system that resulted from the economic crisis caused the return of diseases that could be found only in the poorest countries of the planet. As a direct consequence, the number of deaths increased dramatically from 1,690,657 in 1991 to 2,144,316 in 1999. This situation marked the beginning of the new demographic terminology specific up to the country: the term “Russian cross” defining a low birth rate and high mortality. During the first post-Soviet decade, Russia naturally lost between 750 and 900,000 inhabitants per year, a demographic collapse that has never been seen in a country not being at war. Logically, numbers of pessimistic demographic predictions appeared at that time. The CIA said that the population of Russia would reach only 130 million inhabitants in 2015 (when it established itself in 2016 up to 146.8 million inhabitants). In 2002, the Robert Schuman Institute imagined that by 2050, the population of the country would reach “between 77.2 million and 101.9 million inhabitants” under more or less optimistic scenarios. For most observers, Russia was doomed to die. 2000-2017 However the economic stabilization from 2000 and the launch of a huge demographic plan starting in 2005 to support the birth rate crashed all the predictions and turned the demographic situation drastically. The number of births continued to increase from 1,266,800 in 2000 to 1,893,256 in 2016, while the number of deaths decreased from 2,365,826 in 2003 to 1,887,913 in 2016. The fertility rate rose from 1.17 to 1.8 children per woman between 1999 and 2016, more than in the European Union. As a result of this new dynamics, Russian population is increasing naturally again since 2012 of 25,000 inhabitants in 2013, 30,000 in 2014, 32,000 in 2015 and 5,000 in 2016. Russian population, which had been decreasing in numbers during terrible 15 years (1990-2005) managed to reach 142,742,368 inhabitants in 2008 and now reaches (01/01/2017) 144,498,215 inhabitants without the Crimea and 146.8 million including the Crimea. 2017 – 2030 ? The Russian State Institute Rosstat is now setting up updated demographic prognoses taking into account the annual demographic trends. Three scenarios exist: – «The pessimistic» scenario states that the Russian population will reach 143,2 million in 2030. – «The average » scenario being most plausible claims that the Russian population will reach 147,1 million in 2030. – «The optimistic » scenario says that the Russian population will reach 152 million in 2030. Yes, but what about Russian demography? In spite of this incredible demographic thaw, the population of Russia will face an extremely complicated situation over the next fifteen years, due to appalling lack of births during the period 1990-2000, that is obvious according to the age-gender pyramid. As an example, the nowadays population of 30-year-old Russians (people born in 1987) represents 2.58 million people in 2016, with 1.3 million men and 1.28 million women. At heart of the Russian demographic crisis in 2030, same 30-year population (people born in 2000) will be only 1.4 million with 685,000 women and 720,000 men, 50% less than today (!). From the point of view of the labor market, this means that the number of the newcomers to the labor market will start a serious decrease from 2017, even though the unemployment rate is already very low. This trend will be indicated until 2030, at which time the increase in births started from the 2000s will be noticeable. Therefore we are only on the edge of the demographic crysis on Russian labor market. How and where will we be able to find qualified, Russian-speaking and Russian labor market oriented human capital to work in Russia if it is not just “in” Russia? The lack of internal demographic resources would lead to an increased flows of immigration. The lack of available internal demographic resources could lead to an increased import of human power from abroad. What is a part of immigration in all that? During the 1990s, millions of ex-citizens (from the former USSR) suddenly found themselves separated into foreign countries at the fall of the Soviet Union. These “red feet” returned to Russian Federation, creating a mainly Slavic migratory flow that largely compensated the demographic collapse that the country experienced at the same time due to decrease of births, rising mortality and mass-emigration to Western countries. During the 15 years period 1999-2014, immigration trend changed and turned mainly to the CIS and particularly to Central Asia. During the period 2000 – 2014 several “millions” of foreign workers appeared, mainly from Central Asia, working mainly for the unpleasant tasks of construction and urban maintenance. Nevertheless, due to the war in Ukraine and the fall of ruble’s currency large part of this work force left Russia by the end of 2014. There has been a new wave of Slavic migration hitting Russia during the last two years: hundreds of thousands Ukrainians have emigrated to Russia to flee the war and the crisis that their country has been going through. Large parts of those migrants are probably not going to leave Russia anymore. Unfortunately for the Russian labour market, these
Interview for the platform STAYA Our first expert is Alexandre Stefanesco and he is the Head of the HR Agency ATSAL (www.atsal.com). He was born in France, but has lived in Russia and in Moscow for nearly 9 years. He is married, has two kids and he is known as an HR-Passionate! “ATSAL is a Human Resources Consulting agency that provides a wide range of services and solutions to companies operating in Russia or planning to develop activities on the Russian market. ATSAL mostly provides full recruitment services but also Recruitment on Demand. “We are a small agency we have four people onboard now. Our clients are mostly French companies operating on the Russian market but we also have clients from Asia and the Arabic world. We have clients operating on various fields: IT, Industry, Finance, Retail …” -What digital staff do your clients usually look for? We have a stable activity in Digital and a dedicated section about Digital in our website atsal.com/digital/ We have clients operating in E-commerce, email marketing, Mobile applications, A/B testing … Regarding positions and profiles we do search for Developers, (PHP, Go Lang, C++, Android…), some Product and project managers, Senior Architects, Sales People… Any kind of position our clients may need to fill. -What are usually the numbers of response / clicks? Frankly speaking too low for Developers / Programmists! Clearly, there is a lack of available workforce on the market and it is quite hard to reach them and quite hard to interest the candidates. However, a lot of them , while passive, are still interested on potential new projects. We understand that the good ones already work In House while many of them work on temporary projects and on free-lance mode… Therefore, we use a lot of ways to find them as usual postings on classical JobBoards and more others. – Is it easy to select the right candidates and what are the key factors for selecting? We do focus a lot on personality, trying to understand who candidates are, what their personal background is and how they should evolve on a personal point of view. We try to see if this personality and the dynamic matches with what our clients are looking for. We also have a very structured recruitment process that includes first contact, phone contact, face-to-face meeting and video-interview. From 2017, we will also propose some new psychometric tests analyzing in a scientific manner the traits that influence the behavior and performance of an individual at work. In general, we try to provide candidates with a positive experience and a transparent recruitment process. If we speak about Developers, usually we have technical tests provided by our client in addition, allowing us to evaluate their technical skills. – Are the qualification of the candidates written rightly in CVs? Definitely no. On the Russian market, there is a cultural lack of “well written CVs”. Candidates still write CV in a too soviet way or for the youngest one in a too creative way. In between, everybody has a HH CV, which we use too, but it is still very poor. For Developers it is emphasized! They however do not rely on their CVs to find jobs but more on their portfolio and of course their networks. – Do you see the difference between Russian candidates and French? Ho! Yes a lot 🙂 French candidates are on an employer market with a very high level of unemployment so employer and recruiters usually face too much applications during their recruitment processes. In Russia, it is the opposite, because despite the crisis, we are still on a Candidate’s market with shortages of profiles in many industries and many geographical areas, and there is a permanent lack of candidates. One more point concerns employees: In France, they fear to lose their job since in this case they will have to face a long period of unemployment … In Russia this is not really the case. -What difficulties arise during the searching? I think the main point is the lack of candidates for many of the positions that we close. In addition, we feel like HH is cannibalizing the other job-boards and also that it is more difficult to recruit in provinces. -How does the recruitment process look like? / What happens in your recruitment process? We have a very structured recruitment process that includes eight steps and can be consulted here https://atsal.com/en/client/#Search We also follow actively the candidate’s onboarding. -What prevents potential applicants to become the employees? Well it can be a weakness on the CV, even on those produced via HH. It is however more often a problem with the applicant’s behavior: how they communicate by the phone during their first contact, the fact that they do not answer to emails and are unreachable or all the time busy… It can also be their behavior during the meeting, the motivation they show by having at least read the job description or check carefully the website of our clients and so on… One example I remember when looking for a Legal Secretary for a UK Law company and some candidates were asking and complaining that the company could not provide parking places for their car while all the foreign partners were using the metro! We do not want to deal with candidates not able to be on time on meetings and explain us that this because of Moscow traffic! No way, there have been traffic problems for 20 years, deal with it and manage to be on time! By Atsal, we focus on those points a lot. – Alexandre, thanks for your time! I wish you success with the Staya project, we will closely monitor your progress 🙂
